By Fred Kiva
The ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) candidate for Hoima district Harriet Mugenyi Businge was on Thursday night declared the winner of the hotly contested woman parliamentary by-election beating her sole rival and FDC’s Asinansi Nyakato.
Businge polled 33,301 votes, while Nyakato garnered 28,789. Nyakato was not only FDC’s flag bearer but also the joint opposition candidate, meaning she had support from all opposition parties, including pressure group People Power led by Kyadondo East Member of Parliament, Robert Kyagulanyi alias Bobi Wine.
With the combined opposition forces, one would think the FDC candidate stood all chances to win, however, this was not the case despite the fact that leading opposition figures Kizza Besigye, Robert Kyagulanyi, Mugisha Muntu, Norbert Mao, Elias Lukwago among others had camped in Hoima for most of the campaign period. The opposition group combed villages trying to water down even the visible NRM achievements, among others the tarmac roads, the Kabaale International Airport, the oil activities, and other related projects. But one wonders why Nyakato would lose despite the combined force?
On top of NRM’s safe landing because of the massive achievements in the district, their candidate Harriet Businge and his team invested much of their campaign efforts on ground where majority votes are, other than social media propaganda as embraced by the opposition group. For instance, a number of fake social media opinion polls reportedly sponsored by the opposition group always put Nyakato ahead, while opposition social media goons always hurled insults at the NRM candidate, including in her own Watsapp group. This social media propaganda continued until voting day when it took Electoral Commission efforts to annul fake results which were being circulated putting the opposition candidate ahead.
Bobi Wine’s role and the Bunyoro-Buganda historical rivalry
While the opposition thought having Bobi Wine by their side was of advantage given his big following especially among the youth, this was a total miscalculation and disregard of the historical rivalry between Buganda (where Bobi comes from) and Bunyoro the home of Omukama Kabalega. In the colonial era, Buganda under Kabaka Mwanga collaborated with the British colonialists to arrest Omukama Kabalega of Bunyoro who had resisted their rule and influence in his land. Kabalega’s capture and detention leading to his eventual death sparked rivalry between Buganda and Bunyoro, which still prevails.
This was exploited by Businge’s campaign group to remind voters of the historical facts and how a person from Buganda (Bobi Wine) could never wish well for Bunyoro and thus had come to derail them from voting the right candidate. “Can Omukama Iguru or any person from Bunyoro go to Buganda for campaigns and his or her message is accepted?” asked elder Alex Byensi Kabusomba during Businge’s radio program. Such messages sunk in the minds of voters who viewed Nyakato as trying to ally with traitors and thus not an ideal Member of Parliament to be.
Museveni factor
President Museveni in a rare show camped in Hoima for two days campaigning for Businge. On top of Hoima being the NRM and Museveni’s stronghold, his camping in the district to campaign for Businge was evidence enough that the Head of State had trust in her and therefore was the right person to send to Parliament.
The Bunyoro Kingdom factor
Being wife to Bunyoro Kingdom’s Chief Prince (Okwir) and a former Minister in the Kingdom also gave Businge an edge over her rival, as just a few or no kingdom loyalist would not vote for her.
