What if The Besigye, Lukwago and Bobi Wine Coalition is Actualized

By Amb Henry Mayega

It is the most tantalizing “what if” the botched coalition of Kizza Besigye, Bobi Wine and Erias Lukwago was actualised it would stitch together their shredded and peripheral stubs. The trio has of recent been relentlessly posturing over forming another coalition, never mind the fissiparous nature of whatever remains of their antiquated coteries.

To bring Ugandans to speed, that trio has duped Ugandans variously with the formation of coalitions against the indomitable and Uganda’s best President since independence, Yoweri Museveni – a man against whom per capita insults by Uganda’s bloggers outstrip any of past leaders.

Many coalesced, minus of course Bobi Wine who was still donning his political nappies, in 1996 when the late Paul Ssemogerere led the pack of UPC, DP and others not worth mentioning here; in 2001 when Besigye and quislings coalesced and collapsed at the polls; in 2006, 2011 and 2016 when, again, Besigye and his western hemisphere-sponsored fifth columnists vainly took a shot at national leadership. Those sponsors relentlessly seek to change our traditions by hook or crook – they recently cancelled us out of AGOA because we rejected sodomy. 

First, the proposed pre-2026 coalition is abhorrently a non-starter for a couple of reasons: the outfits they purport to lead into the coalition are thoroughly disjointed, fissiparous and on political drip. Besigye’s FDC which he founded is on oxygen; it’s mutilated into the Najjanankumbi and Katonga cabals; that political colossus with clay feet has helped to shred it by tearing the Katonga group away from Patrick Amuriat’s.

On the other hand, Bobi Wine and his former leader of opposition, Mathias Mpuga are mercilessly shredding whatever remains of NUP and, Lukwago, who was frog-matched out of Najjanankumbi, has, for far too long, been notoriously hobnobbing with multifarious political parties leaving a trail of bewilderment and pandemonium; at KCCA, he will always be remembered for his hurly-burly conduct of public affairs which is synonymous with that of the anti-progress Ku Klux Klan in the US. The fractious DP which rejected Norbert Mao as its President on tribal grounds is conspicuously holed up at a Namirembe hideout.

It is abundantly clear that no pre-2026 election coalition can be impactful and to think so or work towards that by the trio or their ilk is to reside in a fool’s paradise; it’s manifestly synonymous with the trio punching above their weight.

Secondly, this column has always argued that the insurmountable divisions glaringly evident on the opposition’s political canvass are deeply entrenched to a point of absurdity; those fissures cannot permit that sector to meaningfully be an alternative to the sitting government. Apparently, by the trio cosseting and closeting their ineffectual capabilities in the supposed coalition won’t either blossom or bud; and the onus is on the trio to demonstrably show us that this is a false characterisation of their cabal which locomotes in a helter-skelter manner.

Unknown to them, running for president is a totally different calculus as we continue to reel and learn from the effects of the coalitional debacles of 1966 and 1979; like the collapse of the UPC and KY alliance, the overthrow of Uganda’s most diabolic regime of Idi Amin in 1979 taught us a couple of things; the UNLFcoalitional regime that took over the reins of power teetered the country on the brink; within less than two years that infamous group collapsed like a house of cards at a flick of a child’s finger due to the fissiparous nature of the regime’s constituent parts; the current divisions amongst the opposition oligarchs are more apparent than the ones then, with most of them manifesting as tribal, regional and others arising out of outright ineptness.

No sane Ugandan would want a repeat of 1966 either when UPC and KY coalesced hurriedly to make fathomed political gains some of which were to legitimately and quickly, actualize independence and avoid more delays. I believe that the cost-benefit analysis of those years’ political activism will be told by historians later.

Thirdly, Uganda’s opposition has been stuck in the same rut for far too long. Their sloganeering of: “Museveni agende,” “dictator Museveni” just mobilizes and galvanizes the support base of Uganda’s best president since independence. Matters are not helped when Wine’s recalcitrant group turns hugely violent and sectarian; in the last elections, NUP exhibited unprecedented levels of savagery which were defeated by Uganda’s bombastic voters.

Lastly, no coalition can survive unless it meets the basic principles of groupism. Uganda’s coalitions since independence, save for the 1986 broad-based government of Yoweri Museveni, have collapsed because they lacked clear definition of coalitional structure, tested leadership, common values and interests, compromise and a unifying manifesto.  

Amb. Henry Mayega

Consul General

Uganda Consulate

Dubai, UAE